主要矛盾切换 A股静待基本面指引

时间:2019-07-16 来源:www.haydaytipps.com

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7月9日,上证指数缩量震荡,下跌0.17%,报收2928.23点,创业板指数上涨0.74%。分析指出,当前市场的关注点从外部因素转向内部因素,基本面预期成为当下市场核心的主要矛盾。总体看,市场的上行逻辑未被破坏但边际存在一定阻力,后市的上升节奏或趋缓,三季度表现仍有期待。

两市缩量企稳

昨日,两市成交量大幅萎缩,两市合计成交约3517亿元,行业板块涨跌互现。具体看,早盘沪深两市开盘涨跌不一,随后市场呈现探底回升态势。早盘,黄金板块跌幅较大,ETC概念股出现跳水,而区块链概念则一度走强,稀土永磁板块拉升明显;午后券商板块、化工板块、氢能源板块先后拉升,两市探底回升,沪指一度翻红,创业板走势更为亮眼。

近期市场热议核心资产,并对抱团核心资产是否瓦解分歧较大。昨日,上证50指数下跌0.55%,指数成分股中的中国建筑(行情601668,诊股)、中国石化(行情600028,诊股)、中国平安(行情601318,诊股)(港股02318)跌幅超1%,贵州茅台(行情600519,诊股)、三安光电(行情600703,诊股)、招商银行(行情600036,诊股)(港股03968)、中国国航(行情601111,诊股)(港股00753)等个股跌幅不足1%。而国泰君安(行情601211,诊股)(港股02611)、海通证券(行情600837,诊股)(港股06837)、伊利股份(行情600887,诊股)等个股则出现上涨。

xxxx从近期整体市场情况来看,主题股的整体表现一般,交易型基金选择观望,而白马蓝筹股已经调整,这使得很难找到很多突破。然而,对于核心资产,市场仍然相对乐观。中信证券(报价600030,诊断股票)(港股06030)分析师秦培敬表示,7月初部分核心资产调整和疲弱市场源于制度调整和个人减仓,但核心资产并没有系统地高估,基本面,增量资本风格偏好和市场环境的拐点不会在短期内出现,核心资产不太可能得到系统调整。

“由于核心资产调整,将逐步增加配送资金以完成接力。股票资金将从本地转移到横向和纵向,从而正式开启7月份的攻势。”秦培敬说。

方正证券(报价601901,诊断股票)策略研究指出,没有迹象表明消费和大金融部门的比较优势已被取代,市场将继续。从目前中期报告的有限披露来看,消费的食品饮料和生物制药公司的业绩有了较为普遍的改善,金融业的披露较少。消费者和大型金融部门尚未找到比较优势。有迹象表明需要更换,至少就目前而言,市场仍将继续。

短期内保持震荡

从日线看,上证指数的重心已经向下移动,但仍有2898点至2912点以下的支撑位。 A股如何在短期内被解释?

银河证券策略师高亮表示,虽然市场在基本面不明朗之前难以突破,但由于A股仍有一定的安全边际,下行回调的压力并不大,而且高概率在第二季度见底。预计短期内市场仍将处于波动状态。

国信证券(报价002736,诊断股)最新战略研究报告也持类似观点,“回撤后,短期压力释放,股指接近震荡平台,下方有一定支撑,股指可能继续窄幅震荡主要是继续探索有限的空间。“

回顾6月份,虽然市场面临一系列负面因素,但A股充满弹性。 6月中旬,预计外部事件将提前完成,主要矛盾将从外部转移到内部。国内宏观经济和上市公司的业绩将成为后续市场。发展的重要基础。

“因为下半年的经济触底基本上是明确的,所以7月需要预测的是财务数据能否继续稳定。”太平洋证券策略师黄福生(报价601099,诊所) ),说5月的社会融资总额是可以接受的。然而,企业融资需求和银行风险偏好仍未得到解决,财务数据是确认信贷周期逆转的最重要因素。

然而,从上市公司业绩来看,东方证券(香港证券交易所03958)策略师薛军表示:“宏观经济面临压力,但对A的盈利前景不应悲观。 - 分享上市公司,2019年A股盈利增长率预计将稳步上升,下半年支持A股市场3,500点。“

Xue Jun pointed out that the 2019 profit growth rate and ROE level of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 constituent stocks will remain stable, and the non-CSI 300 company's 2019 profit growth rate will rebound. On the one hand, the proportion of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 constituent stocks in A shares has been stable at 80%-90%, and its profitability has the greatest impact on A shares. The profit growth rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 constituent stocks and the stability of the ROE are reflected in: First, the second quarter of 2018, the growth rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 constituent stocks and the PPI deviated, indicating that its revenue growth rate was affected by the fall of the PPI. Smaller. Second, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 consumption, optional and other sub-index ROE is more stable, or rising. On the other hand, the non-CSI 300 company's earnings growth rebound is reflected in the 2018 annual report, the overall growth rate of the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 constituents' net profit is 6%, and the overall growth rate of non-CSI 300 A-share companies is - 36%, setting a record low since 2010. Due to the low base in 2018, the probability of a growth rate increase in 2019 is very large.

Focus on the financial and consumer sectors

In the short-term, the market generally expects the index to maintain a range volatility pattern. Market opportunities are more structural. In this context, what opportunities are there for the market?

"In this period, we need to pay attention to the differentiation characteristics of the market. For the targets with stable performance and low valuation, it is still appropriate to hold the holdings." Guoxin Securities Strategy Research pointed out.

Hong Liang said that in terms of industry allocation, it will be affected by the centralized disclosure of the China Daily in the short term. It is recommended to pay more attention to the stability value stocks and leading enterprises in various industries, because they have the characteristics of both offensive and defensive in the current environment. In addition, it is still recommended to focus on value investment and optimize the medium- and long-term allocation structure; in the context of the reform of the financial supply side and the launch of the science and technology board, it is recommended to attract high-quality growth companies and financial industry leaders on dips. On the whole, the uncertainties in the market are gradually improving, but further improvement still needs to wait, and attention should be paid to the risk of callback after a short-term rapid rise.

xx根据太平洋证券策略研究,即使短期小盘股占主导地位,仍然建议每次都购买“核心资产”。在行业层面,仍建议分配食品和饮料,通讯设备,核心半导体,农产品(市场000061,诊断库存),金融业保险,经纪和可选消费,以及贵金属的合理定位部门,灵活性可以围绕超卖作为通信半导体军事发展。

国金证券(报价600109,诊断股)表示,A股投资者仍将坚持行业配置和个股选择中的两个“溢价”原则:即给予该行业“业绩决定溢价”,给予中大股票“流动”性溢价,短期内很难看到这种风格的实质性变化。因此,该行业仍在推动金融和消费领域,并为周期和政策红利薄弱的新能源(光伏),军事和环保部门提供建议。

渤海证券策略师宋海伟表示,在本月15日之前,建议关注创业板公告的发布过程,以及可能的风格转换机会。在配置方面,主要政策建议侧重于资本市场改革不断深化的非银行金融部门的投资机会,以及加速经济转型背景下科技部门的持续热化过程。此外,还建议在废物分类下注意环保部门的主题。性机会。